By Nmesoma Okechukwu
- Robotaxis could displace millions of Black truckers and rideshare drivers by 2035, as autonomous vehicles undercut human driven transport costs
- The autonomous Vehicle industry will have a global market share of $415B by 2035
Since the early days, the AI debate has always boiled down to two distinct points. Those on the pro side argue that AI is going to make human labor cheaper, easier and more precise. On the con side, we argue that it’s going to replace a number of human labor and thereby give rise to global unemployment. If there’s an AI technology that answers to both of these sides, it’s Robotaxi; capable of revolutionizing businesses around the world which could put millions of truckers out of business.
Why This Matters: In the U.S., truckers make up roughly 3.5 million of the working population and Black people make up 14 – 15% of these drivers. They could be out of business should Robotaxis fulfill their destiny and replace at least 6 million vehicles in 2035. To put it further into perspective, roughly 1 out of every 160 people on earth is working as a truck driver. So, is this a scary future, or is it one where you can get a seat at the table if you have the right tools?
There are simply a lot of advantages attached to Robotaxis for you to sit and silently hope it goes away. Not only will it be ready to access service routes impractical for single human drivers, but it will beat the cost. While it drops from $8.56 in 2025 to about $2.03 in 2035, the human driven truck is expected to rise from $2.55 to $2.84 in the same span, mostly because of increasing driver wages. In fact, a study carried out by Goldman Sachs predicts that the Autonomous Vehicle industry will have a global market share of $415 billion by 2035.
Robotaxis becoming more widespread and easier to maintain means that fleet owners and rideshare companies, like Uber (UBER -0.63%) and Lyft (LYFT +0.63), could soon be laying off many, if not all, of their human drivers. According to CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, Uber is already starting to recruit fewer ride-sharing drivers.
What’s Next: Robotaxis are being lauded as the prized technology of the future, thanks to their capability to provide cheaper and safer transportation to underserved areas. As jarring as this reality is, consider a third route for AI, one where it’s not taking away jobs, but creating new sectors for businesses to thrive in, like technology has always done. The biggest opportunities for entrepreneurs have now shifted from driving to owning, managing, and servicing transportation systems.
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